It never occurred to me that with the growing popularity of ebooks, book cover design might go the way of my favorite album covers of the 70s and earlier.   Had it occurred to you?

As this recent article points out, if book jackets disappear, something in the total experience of reading a book will be lost.   I’ve often picked up a book based on the cover, not so much the topic. 

CDs are okay, but I miss buying album covers and spending time reading lyrics that are actually legible instead of point 6 size.    It was all part of the “experience” of buying music.   I hardly look at CD covers now – they’ve definitely lost something in the translation to a smaller footprint.  And as we have more and more ebooks, we may lose the art of intriguing book cover design.   

I have a collection of Zane Grey books that belonged to my father.  Most have the original dust jackets on them.   If you’re not familiar with Grey, he lived in Payson, Arizona for a time, and wrote beautifully of the “Rim Country.”  The dust jackets speak to an era in book design that was so rich in complexity.   

I don’t know if current book design does it for me.   I can’t get excited over the Twilight series covers, for example.   But maybe to the target teenage audience, covers don’t matter as much.  

How do you think book cover design will change in the next 5 years?   I think more emphasis will be on distribution channels and less and less on the artistic component.  Pity.

Economic Futurist Joan Foltz

Those of us who attended Joan Foltz’ presentation at the Arizona Book Publishing Association luncheon yesterday left the meeting somewhat more encouraged than when we arrived, as the hot button in publishing today is what effect ebooks will have on our beloved traditional, physical book. Her talk was entitled, “What’s Up/Down with the Publishing Industry.”  She was the perfect speaker for this topic, as she has a master’s degree in futures studies, is an “economic futurist,” and is in the process herself of putting out two books. She looks at industries and analyzes their cycles and what is changing the behavior and structures of those systems.  You can find out more about her background and newsletter at www.edgyeconomics.com.   

What’s our pulse now? 

We are now in a state of “disequilibrium,” according to Joan, where we are trying to determine which is fad, and which is permanent change. Destruction is scary, she said, and some people will be knocked out, but it also represents new opportunity. 

The short story — – there will be both physical book and electronic publishing for at least 50 years. As an author or publisher, determining which format in which to produce your book will depend on what your target customers want, and what the giant bookstore Barnes & Noble does. She advised that we keep an eye on B&N as a bellwether as they address this challenge. 

It was comforting to hear that she felt, based on her analysis, there will be a combination of print and electronic for a long time. She contrasted books against sound (music) and movies, saying that the book is a product, a testament to our accomplishments. Even more than that, it’s an art form. It represents connection and environment. We find comfortin being surrounded by books, and eat, sleep, and even hang out in the bathroom with them.     This emotive factor of physical books cannot be translated to e-books. The physical book makes a statement, and personalizes spaces. It invites people in. 

Barnes & Noble is important because what they determine on the profitability of different formats will determine the evolution of those book formats. The ebook has disrupted the chain. Like other technology inventions, it will morph into the phone or computer and will not be a separate device.   Joan even predicted that it will be given away for free – just as cell phones are given away when people sign up for service. 

Publishers will see a split between books that have physical attraction and books that have current, timely information. There is a lot of emphasis placed on the purchase point, and this will affect textbooks. You will be able to download just the chapters that you need.  Also, the producers of content are changing, and Amazon won’t be our leader anymore. Distribution and producer will merge. 

The competition we will see will be companies that are not in the traditional publishing industry. New players from outside the industries, like Kinko’s/Fed Ex will appear, since they have so many local stores. There will be a consolidation in the industry and a lot of players will be knocked out. 

So how do we plan for the future? Watch the publishers that cater to the babies and youth, she said. Watch the big publishers — this will form the future. Teens, for example, want a lot of interaction. Interestingly, however, she mentions studies that teenagers who are saturated with technology early on are often no longer keeping up – they’re tired of it. It’s a saturation point and things have come full cycle. Unlike some futurists who predict that we will go completely into a virtual world, Joan does not believe or predict this. She feels there is embedded in us a physical attachment to books, and to the physical connection that we get in bookstores. She mentioned that there is an explosion in store pickup, where instead of having a book sent to us that we found online, we go to the bookstore to pick it up. She pointed to Apple as an example of how they changed the whole computer buying experience for the retail store. There are real connections there. 

Publishing will really be marketing as we move forward. The interactivity in the websites will be extreme. If you’re good at that, she says you can be a big player in your area. 

Forces 

Multiple factors will affect the future of book publishing. In addition to watching what aging boomers are doing in their retirement years, she advised we keep an eye on the next boomers and watch them and what they adopt. The big publishers and their search for profitability will shape the future. Tech companies will infiltrate and will squeeze authors’ royalties because they have a different model of profitability. The dumbing down of society will be a huge factor, too, as we are becoming lazier and lazier. We are increasingly relying on visualization because it’s fed to us — there’s no cognitive translation effort. 

For authors, the future means more publishing options and larger readerships. It also means a different kind of writing, as crafting copy for the printed physical form is different from crafting electronic copy. She referenced a presentation I heard last week hosted by Business Wire (see my post here) in which the Arizona Republic Social Media Editor, Chad Graham, informed us that the reporters now have to write two versions of their stories, one for print and one for online. 

The keys for publishers are to make sure they 1) provide top service for their clients, 2) pay attention to the need for speed, 3) focus on marketing, and 4) recognize potential. She cited the example that Arizona author Stephenie Meyer, author of the Twilight series, sent her manuscript to dozens of publishers before landing a successful contract.  Those publishers who didn’t recognize her potential must be kicking themselves now.    Focus on what readers are looking for, she said, and what they want is a good story. 

I was riveted during the entire presentation, because her predictions validated the research I personally conducted in 1982-1984 as part of my master’s thesis on the viability of electronic formats as an alternative medium for book publishing, which you can read about (if you’re a book wonk, like me) in my January 27th post here.   The ability of a book to stand as an art form and as a comfortable environment may be what ensures its success through future generations, even if those generations grew up from the beginning with electronic exposure. As I write this, I am facing a wall in my office lined with beautiful books.  I used to think my attachment to books would perhaps die with my generation, but based on Joan’s analysis, this attachment is embedded in us at a deep level.  I find that immensely encouraging. 

Social Media 

Joan ended the presentation by talking about social media, and I must confess that this is where I somewhat politely disagree with her analysis. She referenced the saturation in the cycle of social media, particularly Twitter, saying that companies feel it isn’t productive for them.  Small business owners don’t have the time to dedicate to social media. She’s certainly right on about that prevalent attitude.   In fact, in the most recent Phoenix Business Journal (March 26), Reporter Chris Cassachia interviewed several local business owners who have opted to “shun the social media bandwagon.” 

It was at this point that my Twitter friend in the audience, @firefighterjoy, asked Joan what she felt was the future of social media, and Joan said she didn’t know, admitting that she didn’t use social media extensively.  This is where I digress from Joan’s analysis of the role of social media in the future. Those of you who know me know I am on Twitter and Facebook quite a bit, in addition to blogging here and for Valley PR Blog, so yes, I’m eating my own dog food.   I am constantly scanning twitter for 1) Information on current events  2) Information on factors that will affect public relations’ best practices going forward  3) Just in time information on specials or deals related to topics that are interesting or hobbies of mine (for example, I follow @dunkindonuts and @redsox_bb !) and 4) occasionally promoting my book, “Press Releases Are Not a PR Strategy,” to my followers.   When a business owner says he or she doesn’t have time to waste on social media, that immediately raises the radar in my head that they don’t understand it, and more likely than not haven’t learned that there are invaluable tools such as Tweetdeck that filter out the information most pertinent to their business and provide an easy interface into the Internet.  Or perhaps they haven’t been on it long enough to find the many incredible people there are online to follow – I learn something new every day from them, and I’ve gained exposure and credibility as an author and PR consultant.  It’s an excellent branding tool.

Experts like my friend Katie Paine have spent their lives measuring communications and in the last few years, measuring social media as well.  Read her wonderful post, “How’s all that tweetey changey stuff working out?”   The data is out there and the books are out there as well – Now is Gone by Geoff Livingston and Brian Solis, The New Rules of Marketing & PR by David Meerman Scott, Putting the Public Back in Public Relations by Brian Solis and Deirdre Breckenridge, and Crush It by Gary Vaynerchuk.   You can’t read these books and not come away with a clear picture of how social media will play an immense role in who survives and who doesn’t.  As Brian points out in his book, blogs (and social media in general) “are more than ranting diaries — a common misperception and underestimation, yet a popular assessment of anything written online by a citizen.” 

Anyway, these beautiful books are all part of the comfortable environment I’ve set up in my home office – no (April) foolin’.  Thanks for allaying my fears, Joan! :)

Whenever there is a revolution, something is often left in its wake, and that apparently is the U.S. postal service. 

In the words of the US Postmaster General, Jack Potter, there has been a macro change in society and all posts around the world are challenged by the diversion of hard copy to electronic medium. Unlike other postal services in other parts of the world, the USPS is constrained by regulations and cannot expand into other areas. Facing a huge mountain of debt, they are proposing that delivery on Saturdays be eliminated. Another likely possibility is a significant hike in postal prices after 2010.

While the speed and convenience of electronic delivery are well understood, nothing quite captures the thrill and quaintness of receiving a handwritten letter. Perhaps the USPS will eventually privatize somehow.   I would hate to see this element of American society disappear, but as I watch teens and twentysomethings with their individual smart phones, I don’t doubt that 30 years from now when my generation has gone, our modes of communication will be housed in museums as curious oddities.

I was contacted by www.prmoment.com, which analyzes UK coverage of the world’s leading brands, to offer my perspective on the effects and impact of the digital age on press releases.

I believe that its impact has been mostly positive. Press releases in particular are now shorter, full of interesting multimedia components, and much easier to disseminate to segmented audiences.  My prediction is that press releases will evolve in the next five years and will be called something else, and the traditional format we love to hate will finally dissolve.    The combined brevity and complexity of such social media tools as twitter will continue to force PR professionals to craft more highly condensed pieces of information in an ever-widening array of formats to please individual audiences.  

You can read the full article here, and find out what other highly regarded pundits are predicting.

Does this sound familiar?  “…a time phenomenon, a product of the greatly accelerated rate of change in society.  It arises from the superimposition of a new culture on an old one.   It is culture shock in one’s own society.  But its impact is far worse.”

This is the theme of many new social media books on the market now – the disruption of society, the inability to adapt, the loss of the industrial age as replaced by the information age as replaced by an even faster information age.   

Yet, Alvin Toffler wrote these words as long ago as 1970, when his groundbreaking work “Future Shock” was published.   He points out that “for most Peace Corps men (a bit dated gender reference there!), in fact most travelers, have the comforting knowledge that the culture they left behind will be there to return to.   The victim of future shock does not.”

The only solution to deal with it is to change your attitude, and that is why it is extremely difficult.  Raging against the machine is futile.   Only those who can force themselves to adapt will survive.    Here’s what I’ve learned:

• It is natural to wish for another scenario.   Spend a moment, honor the time that you treasured, and embrace the new.   
• Join organizations that are characterized by generations that are at least 15 years younger than you are.   If you spend too much time in church, book clubs, or other groupings that are either too small for innovation or too dominated by older, traditional mindsets, you will only absorb their inertia.
• Network (coffee, drinks) with younger people.  This will help you learn more about how they are coping, and what kinds of job skills they are applying. 
• Use social media tools such as twitter to stay informed about trends.   It could save your professional life.
• Beef up on your humor and wit.   Businesses equate negative, humorless people with those who can’t adapt.   Humor is perceived as flexibility and adaptability to any kind of situation.  
• Keep moving – cement trucks have constantly rolling barrels for a reason.

Even though the current roster of social media books is harping on a 40-year-old theme, they are crucial to getting a disbelieving society to change.   Repetition of message is key.

Master's thesis, Boston University, 1984

Steve Jobs demoed the Apple iPad today, which although not available for several months, promises to take us closer to e-book reality.

Master’s Thesis

I first researched e-books in 1983-84 as part of my master’s thesis at Boston University’s College of Communication. The project analyzed what was then an emerging communications technology, driven through the videotext channels at the time.  Videotext is a two-way interactive system which transmits information on telephone or cable lines to a specially adapted television set or home computer. Book publishing stood to be affected by videotext because it offered an important alternative to the familiar physical book that we all know.

Back then, future based institutes were predicting that by the year 2000, 35% of all households would have videotext. It was seen even back in the 80s as a trend toward media that are more specialized and less indistinguishable, a divergence from the truly mass media of before and occurring at a rate rapid enough to cause great confusion among media professionals.

Videotext for timely information

Videotext focused on distributing timely, as opposed to timeless, information. It was a sister companion to teletext which was broadcast over the airwaves as opposed to telephone or cable lines. Videotext offered the capability of two-way communication, allowing the user to interact and actually manipulate the information.

It was difficult back in 1983 to project how well e-books would be adapted because the screen technology was so primitive at the time. Since videotext was carried on (non hard-definition) television sets which have poorer qualiy than video display units, there was more of a jittering effect because of the different refresh rates. It was a challenge to read text off the screen. We know now that with the development of technology, screen readability is no longer an issue.

Costly distribution
In the early 80s, the distribution cost of data was also formidable. Source Telecomputing Corporation was founded in June 1979 in McLean, Virginia as a way to give the public affordable access to updated information. Daytime rates were over $20 an hour, and nighttime rates were $7-$10 an hour. The Source offered featured news, research, shopping and transaction, and education although limited.

Blind Pharoah – first electronic novel or ebook

The Source also had the distinction of offering the very first electronic novel, which later changed in nomenclature to “e-books.” At a Toronto computer show in early 1983, Burke Campbell wrote a suspense novelette at on an Apple III and sent it to The Source, which then edited it and had it online for Source subscribers only three hours later. Subscribers had the choice of reading “Blind Pharaoh” on their video display terminal, printing it, or storing it on a floppy disk. To download the story into computer memory was over two dollars at nighttime fees, which was still considerably cheaper than a paperback novel. The book had 20,000 words and 19 chapters.

Other services such as CompuServe, which was formed in 1969 as a time-sharing service and then as an information service in 1979, offered distribution rates for information at much lower fees, such as six dollars per hour during the daytime. Over the last 27 years, since I first researched electronic novels, there has been a lot of debate in the publishing world about where and how they can best be distributed.

Universal formats will bode well for e-books, so that users can ultimately choose the electronic version of their favorite book no matter what device they are carrying.  The publishing world is still settling the issue of digital piracy, and that will remain a thorny issue.

What hasn’t changed is that people still like the ease and portability of traditional book formats. In 1983, I predicted that this wouldn’t change. I still support that notion, but have backed off it a little bit because of the dramatic improvements in technology in terms of the look and feel. Society has also changed in terms of its consumption of information and its demand for immediacy of content. It may be that as generation outgrows generation, those of us who grew up with physical books are replaced by younger generations who have only known electronic media, and eventually the traditional book will only become a curiosity in a museum.

Technology has made ebooks more palatable

In the thesis, I described how unstable the refresh rate of characters on the screen were and how annoying they were to the eyes for any extended length of time. I concluded it is difficult to conceive of a scene where a user decides to call up the latest novel on his videotext terminal and read it on the spot. The issue then also was that the computer-like typeface of the medium when printed did not approach the sophisticated, readable typeface found in traditional books. I theorized that videotext equipment would have to be improved substantially to achieve this goal which seemed unlikely because it would undoubtedly mean higher prices.

Since directories are updated continually, I wrote, it is reasonable to expect that perhaps videotext will eliminate the traditional print formats of highly timely material if only to save printing costs such as scenario is in no way detrimental to book publishers as electronic transmittal in this particular case is much cheaper than print production. The experts I interviewed in the early 80s at different publishing houses, videotext service companies and cable companies felt that partnerships were the way to go. In the early stages of an industry, commented Shelley Isaccson, partnerships make sense.

The future as predicted in 1983

Obsolescence is defined as the situation occurring when a new product performs functions more effectively than the old.  Videotext, now in the form of ebooks are not a threat to printed books, nor vice versa. Each medium has particular instances where its convenience outperforms the other. For e-books, the selectivity of timely information is its major advantage. Books are more appropriate for portable and lengthy “escapist” material. The two forms are merging and moving toward coexistence. It remains to be seen what the final arrangement will look like.

Note:  It is interesting that I typed the thesis, rather than used a computer, as I did not have access to or own a computer in 1983.    I owe a debt of gratitude to my three expert readers for the project, including Professor David Sykes at Boston University, Analyst Berge Ayvazian, and Computerserve Branch Support Manager Antonio Dutra.  

Credit: zoonabar

In the last week, I have attended several conferences and seminars in Phoenix.  My big take away? There is a serious changing of the guard in business, and if you happen to belong to the over 40 crowd, you need to sit up and pay attention.

The old rules of business went out the window long ago. That was the world where you waited patiently and put in your time at your job, and gradually acquired the incremental, tangible signs of your advancement in your career. Maybe it was the bigger cubicle. Maybe it was the office window and covered parking. Maybe it was the bigger salary.

At these conferences, the speakers are not wizened old businessmen and women in starched suits. They are young, vibrant entrepreneurs in their 20s and 30s. They didn’t wait for their turn in line. They went for the brass ring and held on tight. They are leveraging social media to exponentially grow their businesses.

The revolution is right under your nose. Do you see it?